Colorado voters to play pivotal role in presidential race, prospects for civil unions
Colorado voters will play a decisive role in relationship recognition rights when they decide who will represent them at the state Capitol. On the left, the House Democratic caucus is eagerly awaiting retaking the chamber they lost two years ago. They pledge to address Colorado’s fiscal mess while continuing to ride the arc of the moral universe on legislation like civil unions and lower tuition rates for undocumented college students who grew up in the state. On the right, Republicans are fighting an uphill battle, clinging tightly to their one-seat advantage that allowed House Speaker Frank McNulty of Highlands Ranch the ability to organize his caucus to kill the Colorado Civil Union Act three times in two years. They say getting Colorado back to work is their only priority.
On the same ballot, Coloradans will choose between President Barack Obama who says he still has work to do, and his Republican challenger Gov. Mitt Romney who thinks Obama’s wasted four years. As a swing state in a close race, Colorado’s electoral votes could make the difference. Other questions still face Colorado, including whether it should be the fist state to regulate recreational use of marijuana. The ballot, one of the shortest in Colorado’s history, is nevertheless one of the most decisive and gives Coloradans a choice to decide between two futures.
The November fight to control the Colorado General Assembly – more specifically, the House of Representatives – has everything and nothing to do with relationship recognition for same-sex Colorado couples.
Democrats have yearned to take back the House since the party lost control of that chamber in 2010 – by one seat. Republicans have strategized on how to grow their slim majority.
Leaders of both parties are optimistic. But political strategists and observers who were interviewed by Out Front say a tug-of-war for the White House, a sluggish economy and new district boundaries leave uncertainty, and both parties with plenty of work to do.
“We don’t know how this is going to shake out this year,” said University of Denver Political Scientist Seth Masket.
Both sides of the aisle have spent the summer and fall promoting their economic strategies across the state, hoping to sway the crucial independent vote, found most commonly in Denver’s suburbs, abandoning rhetoric on social issues like the Colorado Civil Union Act and ASSET, a bill that would have created a new tuition classification for undocumented immigrants in Colorado who were brought to the United States as children.
And while neither the candidates nor voters are discussing gay rights as a top issue, strategists for both conservatives and progressives agree this election cycle, specifically the money being spent by special interest groups, has made the issue a new variable.
For gay rights activists and supporters of The Colorado Civil Union Act, urgency is exceptionally high because current Republican leadership in the House has vowed in an interview with Out Front to continue to block the legislation as long as they’re still in control, and the progressive base in the state Senate that has passed the bill twice is likely to be eroded by 2014 due to term limits and more competitive races, strategists admit.
The bottom line: if Democrats are not in control of the House after the 2012 elections, passing a bill to establish relationship recognition for same-sex couples in Colorado would be more difficult than ever before – at least until after the 2016 election cycle.
Two of the largest coalitions backing the Democrats – the Colorado Accountable Government Alliance and the Coalition for Colorado’s Future – have raised more than $4 million. The Senate Majority Fund and Colorado Leadership Fund, supporting the GOP, have coordinated more than $3 million. These organizations, known as 527s for their tax ID status, dwarf what the parties limited by campaign finance laws can fundraise. The state Democratic Party has built a war chest of about $700,000, while the state Republican Party has deposited about $400,000 in its bank account as of Oct. 12, according to documents filed by the Colorado Secretary of State.
In addition to the parties and their coalitions are numerous independent expenditure committees – the state-level version of a super PAC – dropping mailing pieces and buying radio and cable to sway voters. Most notable is Fight Back Colorado, an organization made up of a network of donors from across the nation and Colorado who support gay rights and want to see Republican Speaker of the House Frank McNulty of Highlands Ranch held accountable for his dismissal of civil union legislation here.
Further, individuals familiar with Fight Back (on track to raise more than $200,000 in 2012 for its House majority effort) have shared privately with Out Front that this money – enough to impact multiple state House races – would not be on the table had McNulty either allowed the bill a full House vote that would likely have passed it, or killed it swiftly and decisively at the committee level.
Instead, donors and activists argue, McNulty and his Republican leadership abused their power and shut down the House in the last 48 hours of its regular session to run out the clock on the legislation.
McNulty has argued it was Senate Democrats who held onto the bill for most of the session leaving Republicans little time to vote on the bill.
However, the bill died for a third time in two years when Gov. John Hickenlooper, a Democrat, called a special session of the legislature to provide McNulty the time he said he needed to pass the bill. McNulty routed it through a committee he knew would kill it.
And in the last month of the campaign season, a response from the religious right has emerged to challenge Fight Back: CitizenLink Colorado Independent Expenditure Committee. Its mission is to support pro-life candidates who also agree marriage is between one man and one woman.
CitizenLink is the political branch of Focus on the Family, a Colorado Springs-based church and religious organization. As of Oct. 15, the organization has registered $31,000 in expenses with the Secretary of State.
Money from both sides and special interests like Fight Back and CitizenLink is being spent on a handful of races that are believed to be competitive.
“The biggest impact is the money,” said one Republican operative who asked not to be identified because of his role in several legislative races. “It’s unhelpful to have so much money coming in attacking Republicans.”
While there might be stark contrast over how to speed up Colorado’s economy and whether civil union legislation should be a reality, all sides agree on which races are critical to their causes.
Democrats hope to pick up seats in Westminster, Colorado Springs, Aurora and in Southwestern Colorado. They believe seats currently held by Reps. Robert Ramirez, Mark Baker, Cindy Acree and J. Paul Brown are ripe for the taking.
Republicans see Rep. Daniel Kagan of Cherry Hills Village as their most vulnerable target and their best chance to their majority if they can hold their own incumbents.
Two open House seats – one in Lakewood, the other in Fort Collins – are also critical to both parties. Amy Atwood, a Republican, is challenging Brittany Peterson after Democratic Rep. Andy Kerr decided to make a run for the state Senate. Similarly, Democratic Rep. John Kefalas is vacating his Fort Collins seat to try out the Senate, leaving out lesbian and Democrat Joann Ginal to square off against Republican Bob Morain.
PLUS:
Meet Colorado’s 8 out LGBT candidates for 2012 state legislative races
Out Front endorsements for the November 2012 election
LGBT and allied organizations work to get out Colorado’s vote
Guide to your 2012 ballot measures in Colorado and Denver
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